The NFL is the most heavily bet league in North America, and its markets are the sharpest. Each team plays 17 regular-season games across 18 weeks, and 14 teams reach the playoffs. With so few games, every line gets a full week of attention.
The three core markets
Point spread
The spread gives the underdog a head start. If the line is Kansas City -3.5, Kansas City must win by 4 or more for a bet on them to win. A bet on the other side at +3.5 wins if that team wins the game or loses by 3 or fewer. Both sides are usually priced near -110.
Moneyline
A moneyline bet is simply on who wins. Favorites carry minus odds and underdogs plus odds. See how betting odds work if the numbers are new to you.
Total
The total, or over/under, is a bet on the combined points scored by both teams. If the total is 44.5, the over wins at 45 or more.
Key numbers: 3 and 7
Because of how scoring works, NFL games end with a margin of exactly 3 or exactly 7 far more often than any other number. That makes half a point around those numbers unusually valuable.
- Getting +3.5 instead of +3 turns a three-point loss from a push into a win.
- Laying -2.5 instead of -3 turns a three-point win from a push into a win.
The half point is called the hook. A move from -3 to -3.5 matters far more than a move from -4.5 to -5.
Parlays and teasers
A parlay combines several bets into one, and every leg must win. Two legs at -110 pay about +264. The payout looks attractive, but the margin on each leg compounds, so parlays cost more over time than the same bets placed singly.
A teaser lets you move each spread in your favor, usually by 6 points, in return for a lower payout. Teasers are at their most useful when the extra points carry a line through both 3 and 7, for example moving a favorite from -8.5 to -2.5.
Props and futures
Player props are bets on individual performances, such as passing yards or touchdowns. Futures are bets on season outcomes such as the division winner or Super Bowl champion. Futures tie up your money for months and carry higher margins, so treat them as a small part of the budget.
What moves a line
- Injuries. The quarterback matters most. Offensive line and cornerback injuries are often underrated.
- Weather. Strong wind affects passing and kicking far more than cold or rain, and tends to push totals down.
- Rest and travel. Short weeks, long trips and games after a bye all matter at the margin.
- Money. Lines move when large bets arrive. The number early in the week and the number at kickoff can differ by a point or more.
Good habits
- Compare prices. Half a point on a key number is worth the effort.
- Bet a consistent amount. One or two percent of your bankroll per game is a sensible range.
- Judge yourself over a season, not a weekend. Even strong bettors lose around 45 bets in every 100.
Sizing your bets: the bankroll guide explains units and why flat staking protects you through losing runs.